The Time for Honourable Retirement Has Come for Ranil Wickremesinghe

His legacy will be judged not by the titles he held, but by how he chose to leave them behind.

by Luxman Aravind

In politics, there comes a moment when a leader must recognise that their time has passed. This is not a matter of letting go with grace but understanding, deep within, that the era in which they once thrived is over. For Ranil Wickremesinghe, that moment has long arrived. It is not about anyone allowing him to step aside; he must make the decision to bow out voluntarily, without further political scheming or intrigue. His contributions to  Sri Lankan politics are undeniable, but clinging to power now is neither honourable nor beneficial. The political winds have shifted, and it is time for him to acknowledge that his days of influence have ended.

Ranil Wickremesinghe,  Sri Lanka's president, during an interview at the Presidential Secretariat in Colombo, Sri Lanka, on Friday, Sept. 20, 2024.

Wickremesinghe’s career, spanning decades, was crowned not by the people’s will but by circumstance. The collapse of Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s presidency in 2022 thrust him into the highest office, not as a chosen leader of the people but as a figurehead brought in to stabilise a fractured state. His rise to the presidency in that moment of crisis was more a testament to the vacuum of leadership than to any popular mandate. That situation served its purpose, and the country needed his experience in that dark hour. But those days are gone. The nation has moved on, and Wickremesinghe must move with it, not continue plotting his survival in a political landscape that no longer belongs to him.

“For everything there is a season, and a time for every purpose under heaven,” goes the ancient wisdom. Wickremesinghe’s season of relevance has passed. The political scene now demands new leadership, fresh energy, and innovative ideas—qualities that Wickremesinghe, once known for his sharp intellect and strategic manoeuvring, can no longer deliver in a meaningful way. His era belongs to history, and history will judge him for his contributions, but also for how he chooses to exit.

The burden of his legacy, however, is heavy. Allegations of corruption have dogged him throughout his career, not just through his own actions but through his protection of those whose hands were far from clean. The people of Sri Lanka, who suffered the economic devastation of recent years, have seen their frustrations compounded by the perception that Wickremesinghe stood by as corruption flourished. His tenure has not been one of transformational leadership, but of calculated survival, and that cold reality has left a bitter taste in the mouths of many Sri Lankans.

In his long political career, Wickremesinghe has undermined rivals and stifled potential leaders within his own party, the United National Party (UNP). Most notable is his relationship with Sajith Premadasa, a man who has managed to survive despite Wickremesinghe’s repeated efforts to sideline him. Premadasa represents the future of the UNP, a future Wickremesinghe can no longer be a part of. His failure to foster new leadership, to reconcile with Premadasa, and to heal the deep wounds within the party has weakened it to the point of near collapse. It is a tragedy that the party, once a bastion of Sri Lankan democracy, has been reduced to this state.

Now is the time for Wickremesinghe to make his final exit, not through the forced hand of political defeat but by recognising that his continued presence is a hindrance to the revival of the UNP and the nation. He should walk away from politics altogether, not just from the presidency or party leadership. His hands must be free from the levers of power, and he must refrain from engaging in any behind-the-scenes political machinations. As Confucius wisely said, “A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.” If Wickremesinghe continues to linger, plotting from the shadows, he will find that his legacy is further tarnished, his accomplishments forgotten in the mire of irrelevance.

The enmity between Wickremesinghe and Premadasa is an open wound that must be healed for the sake of  Sri Lankan politics. Wickremesinghe must now accept that the baton of leadership belongs to Premadasa and others of his generation. By continuing to obstruct, even passively, Wickremesinghe ensures only the prolonged suffering of a party that desperately needs renewal. He must make way, and in doing so, take a decisive step towards reconciliation. His refusal to sign the Rome Statute, to protect  Sri Lanka from external political pressures, and his balancing of relations between China, India, and the United States were calculated moves, but now he must calculate his exit with the same precision. “Old age is a crown of dignity when it is found in the way of righteousness,” teaches the ancient text. Wickremesinghe’s legacy, his crown, now depends on his wisdom to step away.

Wickremesinghe has been in power for far too long, not just holding office but exerting influence in ways that have prevented the natural evolution of Sri Lanka’s political landscape. His persistence in staying active behind the scenes, weaving plots and strategies to maintain his foothold, has not only damaged his own reputation but has stunted the growth of younger leaders like Premadasa. For the good of the country and the party, Wickremesinghe must retire fully, without the slightest inclination to return or manipulate the political process.

It is not about allowing Ranil Wickremesinghe to retire with dignity—he must seize this moment and retire of his own accord. His continued engagement in politics would only serve to drag down the UNP further and keep Sri Lanka chained to the past. His era is over. It is time for him to leave without further interference, and allow the next generation to lead Sri Lanka into the future.

His legacy will be judged not by the titles he held, but by how he chose to leave them behind.

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Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah: The Man Who Defeated Israel

The assassination of Nasrallah produced a sense of shock across Lebanon because a view had been growing that he could not be killed.

by Vijay Prashad

Israel assassinated Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah (1960-2024) because he refused to stop the attacks on northern Israel until the Israelis ended the genocide against the Palestinians. During the brief Israeli ceasefire, Nasrallah’s organization—Hezbollah—paused their attacks also. When the Israelis resumed fighting, so did Hezbollah.

Sayed Hassan Nasrallah as a young militant in the early 1980s, I assume on the streets of Beirut. Thank you to @Fereshteh Sadeghi for posting on “X”.

Nasrallah was killed because he was unrelenting in his support for Palestine. Unlike every other Arab leader, Nasrallah had led the fight against Israel twice, which led to its defeat: first, when Israel was forced to withdraw from Lebanon in 2000 and second when Israel could not vanquish Hezbollah in 2006. The man who defeated Israel was finally killed on September 27, 2024, along with thousands of his fellow Lebanese.

In 2013, as the war in Syria escalated, I walked with a friend into a crowded area in Dahieh, a neighborhood of Beirut, Lebanon. We had come to listen to a speech being given by Nasrallah. I had been told that Nasrallah would address the reason why Hezbollah—which is both a political party in Lebanon and a military group formed to defend Lebanon from the constant Israeli incursions—had decided to enter Syria. A large television screen had been erected in the open space, and eventually, Nasrallah appeared on it and was greeted by loud cheers. Similar scenes would have been observed in other parts of Lebanon where Nasrallah would have appeared on television screens to address people about this consequential decision.

The reason Nasrallah was not there in person is that Israel had targeted to assassinate him ever since he was appointed to lead Hezbollah in 1992 at the age of 32. It would have been suicidal for him to appear in person. For that reason, his exact location was unknown, but it was clear where people could gather to listen to him. The speech began slowly, with Nasrallah laying out the complexities of the war in Syria, and the dangers posed to Lebanon’s people by the assaults of Jabhat al-Nusra, the Al Qaeda front, near the borders. If al-Nusra entered Lebanon, Nasrallah said, the group would target the Shia community, but also Christians and others. It is to protect Lebanon, Nasrallah said, that Hezbollah fighters would have to cross the border and fight in Syria’s Qalamoun Mountains.

Later, I went with another journalist into those mountains to observe the clashes between Hezbollah fighters and those of Jabhat al-Nusra. The reverence with which the Hezbollah men spoke of Nasrallah was impressive, and their own sense of destiny—to defend Lebanon from the scourge of al-Nusra—was commanding. If the Sayyed told them to do it, they said it would be done. And so, they were there, far from their homes, caught in difficult fights with al-Nusra fighters who were motivated by martyrdom rather than by the need to gain territory. If there was a poll among Hezbollah members and their families, Nasrallah would universally have the highest approval rating.

In his speech, Nasrallah said it was vital for Hezbollah to protect the Sayyida Zainab Mosque at al-Sitt, just outside Damascus. This mosque is said by the Twelver Shia to be the burial place of Zaynab bint Ali, the daughter of Ali and Fatima, and, therefore, the granddaughter of the Prophet Muhammad. Since the shrine is revered by the Shia community, and Al Qaeda groups had been terrorizing the Shia population in Syria and attacking Shia shrines, Nasrallah’s concern resonated with his followers.

It is vital to understand that in interview after interview, Nasrallah said that sectarian divides are anathema and that coexistence is essential. The entry of Hezbollah into Syria was partly about protecting Lebanon from al-Nusra and partly about protecting the Shia community in Syria and Shia shrines. It is emblematic of Hezbollah’s location in Lebanon both as a Lebanese national force and as the Islamic (not Shia) resistance. Throughout his leadership of Hezbollah, Nasrallah moved between these two aspects of the organization deftly.

Driving through Lebanon’s southern towns, it is clear that the depth of support for Hezbollah is unshakable. The reason is that it was Hezbollah’s military ingenuity that led to Lebanon being able to end the Israeli occupation by force of a large part of Lebanon in 2000, which had begun when Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982. Hezbollah was born during that conflict and demonstrated both military prowess and political acumen as well as courage in the face of repression. Nasrallah had been in Iran from 1989 to 1991, studying at the Shia seminary in Qom. When he returned to Lebanon in 1991, he threw himself into Hezbollah and the next year—after the assassination of Hezbollah leader Abbas al-Musawi (1952-1992) by the United States—Nasrallah became the leader of the organization.

Nasrallah immediately set in motion a policy that remained in place until his assassination: Hezbollah would only hit Israeli military targets, but if Israel struck Lebanese civilians, then Hezbollah would retaliate against Israeli civilians. When Israel withdrew in defeat in 2000, Hezbollah made a public statement that it would not target anybody in Lebanon who collaborated with the Israeli occupation. The Lebanese had to heal and become a nation.

In the Lebanese coastal city of Sur (Tyre), unknown people bombed a number of restaurants that serve alcohol in late 2012. I went down to talk to some of the owners of these restaurants and of a brewery, all of whom told me that they had been visited by people from Hezbollah who offered to pay for the damages even though the attacks were not by their members. Nasrallah had said that though he opposed the consumption of alcohol, he did not believe that Lebanese society must conform to the social views of any group but should learn to tolerate the mores of each other.

For all the talk of Nasrallah and antisemitism, it would be worth considering that it was Hezbollah under Nasrallah that helped the reconstruction of Beirut’s Maghen Abraham Synagogue. “[It] is a religious place of worship,” Nasrallah said, “and its restoration is welcome,” stated Arab News. It is this attitude that partly led to Nasrallah telling Julian Assange during a discussion about Palestine in 2012 that “the only solution is the establishment of one state—one state on the land on Palestine in which the Muslims and the Jews and the Christians live in peace in a democratic state. Any other solution will simply not be viable, and it won’t be sustained.”

When Israel, with U.S. support, began its bombardment of Lebanon in 2006, it appeared certain that Hezbollah would be demolished. But it withstood the attack and counterattacked Israel. Years earlier, friends in the Arab states would ask me, “Why can’t we produce a Hugo Chávez?” meaning why could they not have a leader who would stand up against the interference of the West and the occupation of the Palestinians by Israel. During the 2006 war, these same people began to say that Nasrallah was their Chávez, that he was the incarnation of Gamal Abdel Nasser. The fact that Hezbollah was not destroyed and was able to stand up for itself proved to large sections of the Arab world that Israel lost that war.

The victory is partly attributed to Nasrallah’s ability to convert Hezbollah from a military force into an integral part of the “resistance society” (mujtama’ al-muqawama) in large parts of Lebanon; this resistance society shaped the worldview of the villages of southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, where they committed themselves to the long-term struggle to end the Israeli occupation of Palestine and the Israeli interventions in southern Lebanon. It is this resistance community that defines Hezbollah’s endurance rather than the thousands of missiles it has hidden away in tunnels across Lebanon’s southern region. The Israelis tried to kill Nasrallah many times during and after 2006 but did not succeed. He would often talk about how one of his speeches was his last since it was unclear when the Israelis might succeed.

The assassination of Nasrallah produced a sense of shock across Lebanon because a view had been growing that he could not be killed. But Nasrallah was a man, and human beings die one way or the other. Robert Fisk asked him to explain what it meant to prepare for martyrdom, according to a 2001 article by him. “Imagine you are in a sauna,” Nasrallah said. “It is very hot but you know that in the next room there is air conditioning, an armchair, classical music, and a cocktail.” That would have been his attitude when the Israeli bombs landed.

In 1997, his eldest son—Muhammad Hadi—was killed in an Israeli ambush in Mlikh. It was a personal loss for him. The day after his death, Jawad Nasrallah, his son, went to the site of the gruesome crater resulting from 85 2,000-pound and 500-pound bombs dropped by Israeli planes and screamed in torment looking at the obliterated bodies. So far, Israel’s continued bombardment has taken the lives of more than 1,000 people in Lebanon and displaced more than half a million others. A society that lives in anticipation of war now struggles with the ruthlessness bestowed upon it by a desperate leadership in Israel that would like to make its genocide of the Palestinians into a war against Lebanon and eventually Iran. Israel’s actions have pried open the jaws of hell.

Meanwhile, black flags were flown from the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad, Iran, and the Sayyida Zeinab shrine outside Damascus, Syria; this is an honor that few receive, not even Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini (1902-1989) got this honor. The shock that now pervades the Arab world will soon dissipate. Hezbollah will try to recover. But it will not be able to easily replace Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the only Arab leader who could legitimately claim to defeat Israel.

Source: Globetrotter

Vijay Prashad is an Indian historian, editor and journalist. He is a writing fellow and chief correspondent at Globetrotter. He is an editor of LeftWord Books and the director of Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research. He is a senior non-resident fellow at Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China. He has written more than 20 books, including The Darker Nations and The Poorer Nations. His latest books are Struggle Makes Us Human: Learning from Movements for Socialism and (with Noam Chomsky) The Withdrawal: Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, and the Fragility of U.S. Power.

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China’s Historic Journey: From Revolution to Global Superpower

As China celebrates its 75th anniversary, we wish the people of China continued prosperity and resilience. May they maintain peace in the region despite all attempts by adversaries to provoke China into new modes of conflict.

Editorial

Over the past 75 years, China has undergone a monumental transformation, evolving from a fragmented nation emerging from civil war and foreign invasion into one of the most powerful countries on the global stage. This journey is not merely a tale of economic growth and political change but a profound narrative rooted in resilience, cultural revival, and a reassertion of national identity. The history of modern China is woven with themes of struggle, transformation, and a deep philosophical understanding of governance and society. It reflects a unique path that defies simplistic categorizations and reveals the intricacies of a civilization that has navigated immense challenges while maintaining its core values.

People visit the Tian'anmen Square in Beijing, capital of China, July 9, 2023. (Xinhua/Ren Chao)

To appreciate China’s extraordinary evolution, one must delve into the historical context that shaped its trajectory. The establishment of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1949 marked the dawn of a new era, led by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) under the stewardship of Mao Zedong. In the wake of decades of turmoil, including the Opium Wars, the Boxer Rebellion, and a devastating civil war, the founding of the PRC symbolized a collective aspiration for stability, sovereignty, and national rejuvenation.

The early years of the PRC were defined by the radical vision of Mao, who sought to create a socialist state. This period was marked by ambition, experimentation, and, ultimately, tragic miscalculations. The Great Leap Forward (1958–1962) aimed at transforming China into an industrialized nation through collective farming and massive infrastructure projects. However, this ambitious campaign resulted in one of the deadliest famines in history, causing the deaths of an estimated 15 to 45 million people. Following this, the Cultural Revolution (1966–1976) sought to eradicate perceived bourgeois influences, resulting in societal upheaval, widespread persecution, and a severe setback for China’s cultural heritage.

Despite these upheavals, the resilience of the Chinese people and the CCP’s ability to adapt ultimately laid the groundwork for a more pragmatic approach to governance. After Mao’s death, Deng Xiaoping emerged as a transformative leader who would guide China into a new era of reform and opening-up.

Deng Xiaoping’s reforms, initiated in 1978, marked a pivotal shift in China’s trajectory. Rejecting the rigidities of Maoist ideology, Deng introduced market-oriented reforms that catalyzed rapid economic growth. His famous phrase, “It doesn’t matter whether a cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice,” encapsulated the pragmatic approach that prioritized results over rigid adherence to ideology.

This period of reform was characterized by a return to the core Confucian values that emphasize hard work, education, and social harmony. The introduction of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) attracted foreign investment, fostering a culture of entrepreneurship that enabled millions to improve their livelihoods. By blending state control with market dynamics, China demonstrated a unique model of development, reflecting its deep cultural heritage and adaptability.

During this time, China experienced unprecedented economic growth, with average annual GDP growth rates reaching nearly 10% for over three decades. Over 800 million people were lifted out of poverty, representing one of the largest reductions in poverty in human history. This transformation was not merely a product of external factors; it stemmed from the resilience of the Chinese populace and the strategic foresight of the CCP.

Moreover, the rapid urbanization that accompanied economic reform fundamentally changed the social landscape. Cities expanded at an astonishing rate, with more than 65% of the population now living in urban areas. This shift not only improved living standards but also fostered a sense of national pride and collective identity, resonating deeply with the Chinese ethos of communal success.

To understand the success of modern China, one must explore the philosophical underpinnings that have guided its development. Central to this is Confucianism, which emphasizes values such as hierarchy, respect for authority, and social harmony. These principles have historically shaped Chinese governance, providing a framework for collective well-being and stability.

The CCP has adeptly harnessed Confucian ideals, emphasizing the importance of the state and the community over the individual. This perspective fosters a sense of unity and purpose among the Chinese people, creating a social contract where citizens accept state authority in exchange for economic stability and national pride. This contrasts sharply with Western notions of individualism and democracy, which often prioritize personal freedoms over collective goals.

Moreover, the concept of “tianxia” (天下), meaning “all under heaven,” plays a crucial role in Chinese political philosophy. It reflects the idea that the state is responsible for maintaining harmony and order in society. This worldview encourages a sense of belonging to a larger national community, reinforcing the legitimacy of the CCP’s leadership as a guardian of social stability and progress. In this context, governance becomes a moral obligation, and leaders are expected to embody virtues that promote the common good.

As China entered the 21st century, the emergence of Xi Jinping as a leader marked a new chapter in this historic journey. Xi, who rose to power in 2012, built upon the foundations laid by his predecessors while introducing a comprehensive vision for China’s future. His leadership philosophy, known as “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era,” emphasizes national rejuvenation, modernization, and the importance of the CCP’s leadership role.

Under Xi’s stewardship, China has not only continued its economic ascent but has also positioned itself as a global leader in innovation and infrastructure development. Initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) exemplify this approach, seeking to establish China as a leader in global trade and connectivity. By investing in infrastructure projects across Asia, Africa, and Europe, China is reshaping the global economic landscape and fostering a multipolar world where it plays a central role.

Moreover, Xi has underscored the importance of self-reliance in technology and innovation, advocating for a comprehensive strategy that aims to position China at the forefront of the technological revolution. The country’s emphasis on becoming a global leader in artificial intelligence, renewable energy, and high-tech manufacturing is indicative of its long-term vision to not only compete with but also surpass established powers.

The achievements of China over the past 75 years are nothing short of extraordinary. Since the launch of economic reforms, China has witnessed transformative advancements in various sectors. The nation has become the world’s second-largest economy, with a GDP exceeding $18 trillion, reflecting a remarkable journey of growth and development. China is also now a global leader in renewable energy production, investing heavily in solar and wind power, while also aiming to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.

China’s commitment to technological advancement is further evidenced by its growing influence in artificial intelligence, telecommunications, and space exploration. The successful launch of the Tiangong Space Station and ambitious plans for lunar exploration demonstrate China’s intention to assert itself as a dominant player in the new space age.

Beyond economic indicators, China’s soft power has expanded significantly through cultural exchanges, international cooperation, and diplomatic engagement. The Confucius Institutes established worldwide have promoted Chinese language and culture, fostering a deeper understanding of China among global audiences. The nation’s rich cultural heritage, encompassing philosophies, art, and literature, has become an integral part of its global identity.

While China’s achievements are significant, the nation faces challenges as it navigates an increasingly complex global landscape. Issues such as environmental degradation, income inequality, and demographic shifts present formidable obstacles. However, the resilience of the Chinese people, combined with the CCP’s capacity for adaptive governance, positions China to address these challenges proactively.

The Chinese model of governance, characterized by centralized leadership and a focus on collective well-being, has often been mischaracterized as authoritarianism by Western commentators. However, this narrative overlooks the historical and cultural factors that underpin China’s unique political system. The CCP’s ability to maintain stability, promote economic growth, and respond to the needs of its citizens is rooted in a deep understanding of Chinese history and the collective aspirations of the populace.

Moreover, China’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic showcased its governance strengths. Rapid mobilization of resources, widespread testing, and stringent public health measures demonstrated the efficacy of a system that prioritizes public health and safety. While challenges remain, the swift and decisive response underscored the potential for centralized governance to address crises effectively.

As China continues to assert its influence on the global stage, the future remains bright yet uncertain. The path forward will require a delicate balance between maintaining economic growth and addressing the myriad challenges arising from rapid development. Xi Jinping’s vision for a “moderately prosperous society” and a “community of shared future for mankind” accentuates the commitment to fostering inclusive growth and international cooperation.

China’s future will likely involve not only continuing to expand its economic footprint but also actively participating in shaping global governance. As the world grapples with pressing issues such as climate change, public health, and geopolitical tensions, China’s role as a responsible global leader will be crucial. By advocating for multilateralism and cooperation, China can contribute to addressing these challenges while promoting a more equitable and sustainable world. As China celebrates its 75th anniversary, we wish the people of China continued prosperity and resilience. May they maintain peace in the region despite all attempts by adversaries to provoke China into new modes of conflict.

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China-Sri Lanka Economic and Trade Cooperation

Under the “Belt and Road” initiative proposed by China, China-Sri Lanka economic and trade cooperation has ushered in unprecedented development opportunities.

by Qiang Zhu, Lanlan Gui, Sujing Guo

School of Economics and Management, Huzhou University, China

This paper systematically explores the economic and trade cooperation between China and Sri Lanka based on the SWOT analysis framework. Against the backdrop of globalization and the “Belt and Road” initiative, China-Sri Lanka economic and trade cooperation shows great potential and broad prospects. By using the SWOT analysis method, the paper comprehensively analyzes the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of China-Sri Lanka economic and trade cooperation. The strengths include complementary geographical locations, complementary trade structures, and a solid foundation of political mutual trust; the weaknesses mainly lie in trade imbalances, unstable investment environments, and cultural and communication barriers. Opportunities mainly arise from the promotion of the “Belt and Road” initiative, the deepening of regional cooperation, and changes in the global trade pattern; threats mainly come from changes in the international political and economic environment, external shocks such as pandemics, and the rise of trade protectionism. Finally, the paper proposes targeted strategic suggestions based on the actual situation, aiming to promote the sustainable and healthy development of China-Sri Lanka economic and trade cooperation and enhance the economic prosperity and well-being of the two countries.

Yuan Wang 5 is leaving  Hambantota Port after replenishment [ Photo:  Sri Lanka Guardian]

1. Introduction

In today’s world, where global economic integration and regional cooperation are deepening, economic and trade cooperation between countries has become not only an important driving force for economic growth but also a key factor in promoting international political stability and cultural exchange. China, as the world’s second-largest economy, has always been in the spotlight for its foreign opening strategy and global layout. Sri Lanka, an island nation in the Indian Ocean, occupies an important position in China’s foreign economic and trade cooperation map due to its unique geographical location, rich natural resources, and long history and culture. Especially under the “Belt and Road” initiative proposed by China, China-Sri Lanka economic and trade cooperation has ushered in unprecedented development opportunities. In the era of globalization, economic ties between countries are becoming increasingly close, and trade and investment liberalization and facilitation have become the general trend. As an active participant and promoter of globalization, China has achieved rapid economic growth and comprehensive social progress by continuously expanding its opening-up and deepening economic and trade cooperation with countries around the world.

The “Belt and Road” initiative is an important upgrade of China’s foreign opening strategy, aiming to build an all-round, multi-level, and composite connectivity network through policy communication, infrastructure connectivity, trade connectivity, financial connectivity, and people-to-people connectivity, promoting the common prosperity of countries along the route. As an important node country of the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road,” Sri Lanka’s economic and trade cooperation with China not only aligns with the common interests of both sides but is also a key link in promoting the in-depth implementation of the “Belt and Road” initiative. China and Sri Lanka have a long history of friendly exchanges, with close cultural exchanges and economic and trade interactions since ancient times. In the new era, with China’s sustained rapid economic development and  Sri Lanka’s steady economic growth, the economic and trade cooperation between the two countries has been continuously deepened and expanded. From traditional commodity trade to infrastructure construction, agricultural development, manufacturing investment, financial cooperation, and cultural tourism, China-Sri Lanka economic and trade cooperation presents an all-round and multi-level characteristic.

This cooperation not only meets the practical needs of economic development of both sides but also brings tangible benefits to the people of both countries. In the current international situation, China-Sri Lanka economic and trade cooperation faces new opportunities and challenges. On the one hand, the weak recovery of the global economy, the rise of trade protectionism, and the intensification of geopolitical risks bring uncertainties and risks to China-Sri Lanka economic and trade cooperation. On the other hand, with the in-depth advancement of the “Belt and Road” initiative, the cooperation potential in infrastructure construction, capacity cooperation, and financial investment between China and  Sri Lanka is huge, and the cooperation space is broad. Therefore, in-depth research on the current situation, problems, opportunities, and challenges of China-Sri Lanka economic and trade cooperation, and proposing targeted strategic suggestions are of great practical significance and urgency for promoting the sustainable and healthy development of China-Sri Lanka economic and trade cooperation and enhancing the economic prosperity and well-being of the two countries.

2. Strengths of China-Sri Lanka Economic and Trade Cooperation

2.1. Geographical Advantages and Strategic Location

Sri Lanka is located in the central part of the Indian Ocean, serving as an important maritime traffic hub connecting Southeast Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. This strategic location not only makes Sri Lanka an important node in international shipping routes but also provides China with a natural geographical advantage in implementing the Maritime Silk Road strategy through the “Belt and Road” initiative. Sri Lanka’s port facilities, such as Colombo Port and Hambantota Port, due to their superior geographical location, have become important transit points for China’s maritime trade and energy transportation. This geographical advantage lays a solid foundation for China-Sri Lanka economic and trade cooperation and promotes deep cooperation between the two sides in the fields of marine economy and port logistics.

2.2. Economic Complementarity

The economic structures of China and Sri Lanka are highly complementary. China is the world’s largest manufacturing country, with strong industrial production capacity and a vast consumer market, while Sri Lanka is mainly based on agriculture and services, particularly having global competitiveness in tea, rubber, and textiles. China’s demand for raw materials and specialty agricultural products provides a stable market for Sri Lanka, while Sri Lanka relies on China’s technology, machinery, and infrastructure investment. This complementarity creates broad prospects for economic and trade cooperation between the two countries, promoting Sri Lanka’s economic diversification and meeting China’s economic development needs.

2.3. Stability of Political and Diplomatic Relations

Since the establishment of diplomatic relations, China and Sri Lanka have maintained long-term friendly political and diplomatic relations. China has always been an important partner for Sri Lanka, providing support not only in the economic field but also in political assistance. Sri Lanka has consistently supported China’s core interests in international affairs, and this mutual trust in political relations provides a solid guarantee for economic and trade cooperation between the two sides. Additionally, a series of bilateral cooperation agreements and memorandums of understanding signed between the two governments provide policy support and legal guarantees for the smooth development of China-Sri Lanka economic and trade cooperation. Stable political and diplomatic relations ensure the long-term interests of both sides in economic and trade cooperation, allowing them to maintain continuity and stability in cooperation in a complex international environment.

2.4. China’s Technical and Financial Support

China has significant advantages in infrastructure construction and technological innovation, providing strong support for  Sri Lanka’s economic development. Several large-scale projects invested and constructed by China in Sri Lanka, such as ports, highways, and power facilities, have not only improved Sri Lanka’s infrastructure level but also brought a large number of employment opportunities and economic benefits. At the same time, China’s financial support has helped  Sri Lanka address the funding shortages faced in development, promoting rapid local economic growth. This technical and financial support is an important advantage of China-Sri Lanka economic and trade cooperation, enabling Sri Lanka to achieve economic transformation and development by leveraging China’s resources.

3. Weaknesses of China-Sri Lanka Economic and Trade Cooperation

3.1. Insufficient Infrastructure and Development Bottlenecks

Although Sri Lanka has made some progress in infrastructure construction in recent years, overall, the lack of infrastructure remains a major bottleneck in the country’s economic development. Particularly in key areas such as transportation, power supply, and information communication, Sri Lanka’s infrastructure level still cannot meet the needs of modern economic activities. Since infrastructure construction requires substantial capital investment and technical support, Sri Lanka is highly dependent on external assistance in these areas, and these deficiencies also limit the return on China’s investment in Sri Lanka. Additionally, some completed infrastructure projects, such as Hambantota Port, have not fully realized their economic benefits due to poor operational management, further exacerbating investment risks.

3.2. Market Size and Consumption Capacity Limitations

As an economy with a population of about 20 million, Sri Lanka’s market size is relatively small, and its consumption capacity is limited. Although Sri Lanka’s economy has grown in recent years, its per capita income level remains low, limiting the country’s demand for foreign products and services. This situation poses certain market limitations for China’s investment and exports in Sri Lanka, especially in high-end consumer goods, technology-intensive products, and services. Additionally, Sri Lanka’s weak industrial base and lagging development in manufacturing and high-tech industries limit the country’s ability to absorb Chinese technology and equipment, thereby affecting the depth and breadth of bilateral economic and trade cooperation.

3.3. Single Structure of Bilateral Trade

The trade structure between China and Sri Lanka is relatively single, with Sri Lanka mainly exporting primary agricultural products and low-value-added raw materials to China, while importing mainly machinery, textiles, and daily necessities from China. This unbalanced trade structure not only exacerbates Sri Lanka’s trade deficit but also makes its economy overly dependent on the Chinese market. If international market demand changes, Sri Lanka’s exports will face significant volatility risks. Additionally, Sri Lanka’s limited range of export products and lack of high-value-added processed products and technology-intensive products make it difficult for China-Sri Lanka trade to achieve high-level value chain cooperation, thereby limiting the further deepening of bilateral economic and trade relations.

3.4. Domestic Political and Social Risks

Sri Lanka’s domestic political and social environment is somewhat unstable, having experienced multiple regime changes and political turmoil in recent years. This political uncertainty increases the operational risks for foreign investors in Sri Lanka, especially in large infrastructure projects and long-term investments. Besides political risks,  Sri Lanka’s social conflicts are also prominent, with issues such as income disparity, ethnic conflicts, and labor rights frequently occurring, which may adversely affect the normal operations of foreign enterprises. Chinese enterprises in Sri Lanka have also faced situations where projects were suspended or renegotiated due to local social unrest and policy changes, further increasing the complexity and uncertainty of China-Sri Lanka economic and trade cooperation.

4. Opportunities for China-Sri Lanka Economic and Trade Cooperation

4.1. Strategic Opportunities from the “Belt and Road” Initiative

The “Belt and Road” initiative proposed by China provides unprecedented strategic opportunities for China-Sri Lanka economic and trade cooperation. As an important node country in the Indian Ocean,  Sri Lanka holds significant geographical and strategic importance in the construction of the Maritime Silk Road under the “Belt and Road” initiative. Through this initiative, China has increased its investment in Sri Lanka’s infrastructure construction, including ports, railways, and highways. These investments not only promote Sri Lanka’s economic development but also strengthen cooperation between China and Sri Lanka in trade, logistics, and energy. Additionally, connectivity projects under the “Belt and Road” initiative will promote regional economic integration, expand the trade scope and cooperation depth between China and Sri Lanka, and provide more business and investment opportunities for both sides.

4.2. Deepening Regional Economic Cooperation

With the continuous deepening of regional economic cooperation, Sri Lanka’s role in regional organizations such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is gradually increasing. China has already established extensive economic and trade relations with the member countries of these organizations, and China-Sri Lanka economic and trade cooperation can be further expanded through these regional cooperation platforms. For example, trade facilitation measures and tariff preferential policies between China and South Asian countries provide favorable conditions for bilateral trade between China and Sri Lanka. At the same time, Sri Lanka, as a gateway to the South Asian and Southeast Asian markets, allows Chinese enterprises to enter broader regional markets through Sri Lanka, thereby increasing trade opportunities and investment returns.

4.3. Opportunities from Sri Lanka’s Economic Reforms and Industrial Upgrading

In recent years, the Sri Lankan government has actively promoted economic reforms, striving to improve the investment environment and attract foreign investment to drive industrial upgrading. This provides good opportunities for Chinese enterprises to invest in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka’s industrial structure is gradually shifting from being primarily agriculture-based to a more diversified economic model, especially in manufacturing, services, and high-value-added industries, which have enormous development potential. Chinese enterprises can leverage their advantages in technology, capital, and management experience to participate in Sri Lanka’s industrial upgrading process, promoting local economic development while achieving mutual benefits. For example, Chinese investments in high-tech manufacturing, e-commerce, and green energy can help Sri Lanka achieve industrial transformation and enhance its international competitiveness.

4.4. Cooperation Potential in Tourism and Cultural Industries

Sri Lanka attracts a large number of international tourists with its rich natural resources and cultural heritage, making tourism increasingly important in the country. With the continuous deepening of cultural exchanges between China and Sri Lanka, more and more Chinese tourists are choosing Sri Lanka as a travel destination. This provides broad space for cooperation between China and  Sri Lanka in tourism and cultural industries. Chinese enterprises can further explore the Sri Lankan tourism market by investing in tourism infrastructure, developing tourism projects, and promoting cultural exchange activities. Additionally, there is potential for cooperation between China and Sri Lanka in film, creative products, and other cultural industries. Both sides can jointly develop culturally distinctive products, enhancing mutual understanding and cultural recognition between the peoples of the two countries.

5. Threats to China-Sri Lanka Economic and Trade Cooperation

5.1. Geopolitical Risks and External Interference

 Sri Lanka’s strategic location in the Indian Ocean attracts the attention of multiple major powers. Countries like India, the United States, and other Western nations are increasing their influence in Sri Lanka, creating complex geopolitical risks for Sri Lanka’s foreign economic cooperation. Particularly, India, as a regional power in South Asia, views Sri Lanka as its “backyard” and holds a cautious or even resistant attitude towards China-Sri Lanka cooperation, which may affect the smooth implementation of China-Sri Lanka economic and trade projects. Additionally, the strategic layout of the United States and its allies in the Indo-Pacific region may exert political, economic, and even security pressures on China-Sri Lanka cooperation. These external interferences increase the uncertainty of China-Sri Lanka cooperation, making China’s investments and project advancements in Sri Lanka face greater political risks.

5.2. Sri Lanka’s Economic Vulnerability and External Debt Issues

Sri Lanka’s economy is relatively small and highly dependent on external markets and international capital, with a relatively single economic structure mainly relying on agriculture, textile exports, and tourism. Sri Lanka’s heavy external debt burden has led to a severe debt crisis in recent years due to over-reliance on external loans for infrastructure construction. The worsening debt problem may further weaken Sri Lanka’s fiscal situation, affecting its ability to fulfill international cooperation commitments. China’s large investment projects in Sri Lanka may face investment return risks due to Sri Lanka’s insufficient debt repayment capacity. Additionally, Sri Lanka’s economic vulnerability makes it susceptible to global economic fluctuations, further increasing the risks of China-Sri Lanka economic and trade cooperation.

5.3. Domestic Political Instability and Social Unrest

Sri Lanka’s domestic political environment is unstable, with frequent regime changes and political struggles in recent years, affecting policy continuity. This political uncertainty may lead to the suspension, adjustment, or even cancellation of projects in cooperation with China due to policy changes. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka’s social conflicts remain prominent, with issues such as income disparity, rising unemployment, and ethnic and religious conflicts occurring frequently. These social problems may trigger large-scale protests and unrest, affecting the normal implementation of China-Sri Lanka cooperation projects. Particularly for large infrastructure projects and long-term investment plans, political and social instability pose serious threats.

5.4. International Market Fluctuations and Trade Protectionism

The increasing uncertainty of the global economy raises the risk of international market fluctuations, especially in the context where both China and Sri Lanka rely on foreign trade and exports. Changes in international market demand, fluctuations in raw material prices, and exchange rate volatility may negatively impact China-Sri Lanka economic and trade cooperation. Additionally, the rise of global trade protectionism in recent years, with many countries strengthening their scrutiny and restrictions on foreign investment, may affect China’s exports and investments in  Sri Lanka. As a small economy, Sri Lanka’s ability to withstand global market changes is weak, and this uncertainty in the external market environment poses potential threats to China-Sri Lanka economic and trade cooperation.

6. Strategic Suggestions

6.1. Fully Utilize Advantages to Promote In-depth Cooperation

China should continue to leverage its advantages in capital, technology, and management to actively participate in  Sri Lanka’s infrastructure construction, especially in key areas such as ports, railways, and highways. This will not only help Sri Lanka improve its infrastructure but also promote economic and trade ties between the two countries. Meanwhile, China should strengthen its research on the Sri Lankan market and seek more areas of cooperation, such as green energy and the digital economy, to promote diversified and high-quality development of bilateral cooperation.

6.2. Mitigate Weaknesses and Risks to Enhance Cooperation Resilience

To address the weaknesses of Sri Lanka’s limited market size and insufficient infrastructure, Chinese enterprises should adopt a phased investment strategy to gradually expand their market share in Sri Lanka. Additionally, during project implementation, they should strengthen communication with local governments and communities to ensure the sustainability and social acceptance of the projects. Furthermore, China can help Sri Lanka enhance the competitiveness of local industries through technology transfer and capacity building, gradually changing the single structure of bilateral trade.

6.3. Seize Strategic Opportunities to Expand Cooperation Areas

The “Belt and Road” initiative and the process of regional economic integration provide broad space for China-Sri Lanka cooperation. China should seize this opportunity to further deepen cooperation with Sri Lanka in trade, investment, and cultural exchanges. Particularly in tourism and cultural industries, China and Sri Lanka can enhance mutual understanding and strengthen the social foundation of bilateral relations by jointly developing tourism resources and promoting cultural exchange activities.

6.4. Address Threats and Establish Long-term Cooperation Mechanisms

To address geopolitical risks and Sri Lanka’s economic vulnerability, China should adopt a multilateral cooperation approach, working with other countries and international organizations to jointly support Sri Lanka’s economic development and social stability. Additionally, a long-term risk management mechanism should be established to enhance the resilience of China-Sri Lanka cooperation. Environmental and sustainable development issues also require special attention. Chinese enterprises should prioritize environmental protection in their investments in Sri Lanka, adopting green technologies and sustainable development models to ensure the long-term success of the projects.

Acknowledgments

2022 Huanggang Normal University Sino-Sri Lanka Cultural Exchange and Economic Development Research Center Project (202212304); National Ethnic Affairs Commission “Belt and Road” Country and Regional Research Center—Japan Emergency Management Research Center Funding (Research on the Response Mechanism of People’s Livelihood Security under Major Emergencies in Japan 2023RBYJGL-9); Xihua Normal University Pakistan Research Center 2023 Annual Project Funding (PSC23YB09); National Ethnic Affairs Commission “Belt and Road” Country and Regional Research Center Sichuan Normal University Southeast Asia Research Center 2024 Annual Project (2024DNYZC031); Ministry of Education Country and Regional Research Filing Center—Chengdu University Thailand Research Center 2024 Annual Project (SPRIT S202409).

References:

Yao Jinglong, Chen Haitao, Zhang Changsheng, et al. Practicing the New Development Concept of the “Belt and Road” Initiative: Promoting the High-Quality Development of the “China-Sri Lanka Joint  Science and Education Center” [J]. Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2024, 39(02): 373-378.

Xie Liangcai, Gao Song. Research on the National Vocational Qualification Framework System of Sri Lanka [J]. Vocational Education Forum, 2023, 38(11): 112-120.

Sun Xianpu, Yang Lu. The Evolution, Causes, and Development Trends of the  Sri Lankan Crisis [J]. Indian Ocean Economic Studies, 2023(02): 82-96+154.

Du Min. New Trends in the Socialist Movement in Sri Lanka [J]. Marxism Studies, 2023(03): 141-150.

Liu Yidan, Wang Min. The Functional Changes of Political Parties in the Nation-Building Process of Sri Lanka [J]. South Asian Studies Quarterly, 2023(01): 80-98+158-159.

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Sri Lanka’s Path to Real Change: No Room for False Hope

Sri Lanka’s new government should not create or foster false hope in the world.

by Victor Cherubim

Almost everyone in Sri Lanka knows that economic stability must be established if we are to be considered a stable and reliable government. Years, if not decades, of mismanagement, or “vedamathaya” and/or soothsayer prescriptions, predictions, or even visits of atonement to the “Temples of the Gods of Andhra” in South India, could hardly suffice to correct the decline in many of our ways. As our new President stated in his Address to the Nation a few days ago, he has a “Vision for Change”, but he is no magician. It will take time, effort, understanding, and action. We must “begin the beginning”.

Iconic Lotus Tower in Colombo,  Sri Lanka [ Photo: Nawod Madhuvantha]

To emerge from external default, we need to show ourselves, and the world at large, that we are doing everything within our country to bring about at least a semblance of political stability. We must demonstrate to our people that we have a genuine plan of action and the will to bring about a lasting peace, which is achievable, given time.

We have paid too much for the war of attrition and still need to settle the cost of the war in terms of both lives and finances before we can move forward.

Since the end of the war, we have been living in a false sense of comfort – the comfort of unbearable costs – by printing money and spending on imported goods we could hardly afford. One way we “bought peace in our lives” was by relying on the importation of goods. Goods, however, are no substitute for peace. This was clearly a mismatch, which we failed to correct until we were forced into the hands of the IMF, a medicine too costly to sustain or bear.

Critics have not been lacking in pointing out that this plan was never sustainable. It imposed unnecessary burdens on the people through higher food and energy costs. Moreover, after the end of the long war, we were afraid of ever finding ourselves in such a situation again, so we kept replenishing our military arsenal at exorbitant costs to the economy. The outside world, I believe, drove us to this predicament, at the expense of a justifiable peace. In hindsight, we fell into this trap, and our neighbours were laughing, hoping to fund us for our short-sightedness.

Peace is no easy task, but the election of our new President seems to mark a defining moment in our history. Contrary to all expectations, change has come about in an orderly and peaceful manner, without bloodshed. This has taken years of hard planning and has come at a great sacrifice to our people.

To consolidate this peaceful transition, we see many things that give us solace and hope. We see three ministers running the government until the General Election mandate for governance on 14 November 2024. The world, too, has watched with eager interest how we aim to stabilise peace in our land, hopefully within a reasonable time frame, bringing light at the end of the tunnel.

From small beginnings, a Plan of Recovery is noticeably being implemented in various departments of government administration and the Services, without much fanfare.

Even the IMF and our debtor nations are noticing a refreshing change in our approach, particularly in how we hope to resolve our debt burden in a structured manner. This is more than comforting.

I don’t know how you, my readers, view this change, but for me, as an “oldie”, I feel that with the necessary support from the people in the weeks ahead of the General Election, we may see the clouds of doubt dissipating, and a new dawn of peace could break over our land – a cherished dream that we can all be rightly proud to share as citizens. An attack on waste, of manpower and materials, is a step forward and will provide fresh thinking.

Victor Cherubim is a London-based writer and a frequent columnist of the  Sri Lanka Guardian

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